Domestically, fiscal consolidation will continue in 2026, with further tax changes and spending optimisation expected, which could dampen construction demand through lower public consumption and household disposable income. The ability to implement all PNRR investments on schedule remains a key upside factor, but execution risks persist. Any significant delays could result in Romania forfeiting funds, directly impacting construction projects. On the positive side, fiscal tightening is expected to ease by 2027, and monetary policy should become more supportive, potentially unlocking private investment.
Externally, the European economy’s performance will influence Romania’s exports and financing conditions. While not directly tied to construction, a stronger EU economy could improve investor confidence locally. Conversely, any new surge in energy or material prices, or an international credit squeeze, would pose a downside risk.
