Autodesk (ADSK) stock should be on your watchlist. Here is why – it is currently trading in the support zone ($282.32 – $312.04), levels from which it has bounced meaningfully before. In the last 10 years, Autodesk stock received buying interest at this level 3 times and subsequently went on to generate 15.1% in average peak returns.
| Peak Return | Days to Peak Return | |
|---|---|---|
| 4/1/2021 | 5.7% | 15 |
| 5/5/2021 | 21.8% | 112 |
| 10/7/2021 | 17.9% | 40 |
But is the price action enough alone? It certainly helps if the fundamentals check out. For ADSK Read Buy or Sell ADSK Stock to see how convincing this buy opportunity might be.
Love the ADSK stock? Great. But don’t get too attached. Stocks crash. High Quality Portfolio lets you navigate that risk.
Here are some quick data points for Autodesk that should help decision:
- Revenue Growth: 13.8% LTM and 11.7% last 3 year average.
- Cash Generation: Nearly 28.0% free cash flow margin and 22.9% operating margin LTM.
- Recent Revenue Shocks: The minimum annual revenue growth in last 3 years for ADSK was 9.9%.
- Valuation: ADSK stock trades at a PE multiple of 60.7
For quick background, Autodesk provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software, including civil engineering solutions for land development, transportation, and environmental projects, distributed directly and via resellers worldwide.
| ADSK | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology | – |
| Industry | Application Software | – |
| PE Ratio | 60.7 | 23.6 |
| | ||
| LTM* Revenue Growth | 13.8% | 6.0% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 11.7% | 5.5% |
| Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| | ||
| LTM* Operating Margin | 22.9% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 21.5% | 18.2% |
| LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin | 28.0% | 13.6% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
What Is Stock-Specific Risk If The Market Crashes?
Autodesk has seen some serious drops during key market crashes. It plunged about 64% in the Dot-Com bubble and nearly 77% during the Global Financial Crisis. The 2022 inflation shock wasn’t gentle either, with a 52% dip. Even smaller shocks like the 2018 correction and Covid pandemic hurt, both wiping out around 25-35% from peak to bottom. So yeah, Autodesk has solid fundamentals, but when chaos hits, it’s still vulnerable to big sell-offs.
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are in good shape – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read ADSK Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
